MUSHARRAF VS LT.GEN. MOHAMMED AZIZ
by B.Raman
There are indications of fresh tension in the relations
between Gen.Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan's self-reinstated Chief of the Army
Staff, self-styled Chief Executive and self-promoted President, and
Lt.Gen.Mohammed Aziz, a Corps Commander at Lahore, who is also the
clandestine Chief of Staff of Pakistan's Army of Islam consisting of Osama
bin Laden's Al Qaeda, the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HUM), the Lashkar-e-Toiba
(LET), the Jaish-e-Mohammed (JEM) and the Al Badr.
The tension has arisen over what Lt.Gen.Aziz, a member
of the Sudhan tribe from Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK), and some of the
Punjabi and Pakhtoon Generals view as Musharraf's amenability to pressure
from the US on issues such as:
* the easing out from the nuclear establishment of
scientists suspected by the US to be in touch with and helping states of
concern such as North Korea, Iraq and Libya in nuclear and missile
matters;
* co-ordinated action against bin Laden and Mullah
Mohammed Omer, the Kandahar-based Amir of the Taliban;
* action against other terrorist/jehadi groups
operating from Pakistani and Afghan territories;
* exercising restraint on jehadi groups operating
against India in order to facilitate a negotiated settlement of the
bilateral differences; and
* allowing the CIA to have a more active
Taliban-focussed role from Pakistan.
Unlike the previous Clinton Administration, the present
Bush Jr Administration has been following a nuanced carrot and stick
policy towards the military junta in Islamabad. One could discern
the contours of this new policy---- from the benign neglect of the Clinton
Administration to calibrated re-engagement---- in the statements and
discussions of Mrs.Christina Rocca, the US Assistant Secretary of State in
charge of South Asia, during her visit to Lahore, Islamabad and Peshawar
earlier this month.
The components of the carrot are as follows:
* Nostalgic recall of the good old days when Pakistan's
Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and the USA's CIA and the Armed Forces
of the two countries acted in tandem--overtly and covertly--in a joint
crusade against the erstwhile USSR.
* Support for Pakistan's economic reforms and
continued US abstention when proposals for assistance to Pakistan come
up before the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other multilateral
organisations so that the proposals go through.
* Expression of concern over the lack of clarity in
Musharraf's Road-map for the restoration of democracy ("All roads
lead to Musharraf"), but assurances that this would not come in the
way of continued multilateral assistance to Pakistan.
* Reiteration of difficulties in lifting bilateral
economic and military sanctions so long as democracy is not restored,
but assurances of finding ways, within the limits of the sanctions, of
helping Pakistani civil society for humanitarian purposes and
strengthening the roots of democracy and the non-governmental movements
on various issues and case-by-case waivers for the supply of spare parts
and fresh equipment for Pakistani Army contingents deployed with UN
peace-keeping forces abroad (e.g. the recent case of the Pakistani
troops in Sierra Leone ).
The stick has the following components:
* The appointment of Mrs. Wendy Chamberlin, a former CIA
operative of Laos fame and an expert on narco-terrorism, as Ambassador
to Pakistan, to co-ordinate the efforts to monitor the activities of bin
Laden, the Taliban and the various narco-terrorist groups operating from
the region as jehadi organisations. She started her CIA career as
a teacher in Vientiane in Laos in 1973 during the Vietnam war and taught
at the Dong Dok University in Vientiane. She worked under the
over-all supervision of Mr.Richard Armitage, the present Deputy
Secretary of State, who was then a CIA operative posted in the office of
the US Defence Attache in the US Embassy in Saigon. She developed
a wide network of contacts amongst the Meos, Hmongs and other mountain
tribes of Laos who were used by the CIA in its covert actions against
the Communist Pathet Lao. After completing her teaching
assignment, she ostensibly joined the US Foreign Service and was posted
to the US Embassy in Vientiane from 1976 to 1978. During this
period, Mr.Armitage, after a cover resignation from the CIA, worked for
some private companies of the CIA, which were being used by it for
covert actions against the Communists in Indo-China. She returned
to Vientiane as US Ambassador in 1996 and continued till 1998 when she
was posted in Washington DC as the Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary
of State in charge of narcotics affairs. She was actively involved
in the execution of "Operation Immunity II" against narcotics
smugglers from Mexico. "Through our worldwide counter
narcotics program, and by working closely with our friends and
colleagues in the law enforcement community we plan to win the fight
against drugs," she said after taking over. She is coming to
Islamabad with the same determination to bring bin Laden, the Amir of
the Taliban and other narco-terrorists, Pakistan and Afghanistan-based,
to justice.
* The proposed posting of a team of UN monitors on the
Pakistan-Afghanistan border to monitor the effective implementation of
the UN sanctions against the Taliban, particularly the arms
embargo. US intelligence agencies and non-governmental
organisations such as the Human Rights Watch have been repeatedly
warning the US Administration that the military junta in Islamabad,
while claiming to be enforcing the sanctions, continues to clandestinely
assist the Taliban, economically as well as militarily. There is a
likelihood that as was the case with the UN inspection team in Iraq, the
proposed team in Pakistan too might consist of a number of intelligence
operatives from the US, the European Union countries and even Russia so
that they can explore the possibility of covert actions directed against
bin Laden and the Taliban Amir. Conservative Think Tanks such as
the Heritage Foundation, which are close to the Republican Party, have
been telling the Bush Jr Administration that vital US interests are
involved in this region and that these could be protected only by having
the Taliban removed from power; the removal of bin Laden alone will not
do. This perception has been strengthened after the arrest by the
Taliban of some voluntary humanitarian workers from the US, Germany and
Australia on a charge of preaching Christianity and its refusal to let
the diplomats of these countries meet the arrested workers.
* Pressure on Islamabad to co-operate with the CIA in
its operations against bin Laden and the Taliban, with veiled threats
that the evidence of Pakistan's complicity with them available with the
US intelligence should be sufficient to declare Pakistan a State-sponsor
of international terrorism.
The Army of Islam group led by Lt.Gen Aziz had even
earlier been unhappy and concerned over Musharraf's visit to India and
over his speech on the Holy Prophet's birthday criticising the Islamic
fundamentalist groups. They suspected and continue to suspect that
Musharraf's visit to India was preceded by clandestine back channel
contacts through the intermediary of the US. They also suspect that
Musharraf has been playing a double game. They think that while
ostensibly praising and defending the jehadi groups as
"freedom-fighters", he has been secretly assuring the US that he
would ultimately rein them in once his economic reforms started producing
results.
They similarly suspect that while holding in public that
Pakistan has no role to play in the USA's disputes with the Taliban,
Musharraf is inclined to clandestinely assist the US.
To pre-empt his moves and to put him on the defensive,
this group has taken the following actions:
* Planting a story on "Paktoday", a US-based
Pakistani website (http://www.paktoday.com/
), on August 10,2001, about the role allegedly played by Dr.Naveed
Musharraf, the Chicago-based brother of Pervez Musharraf, in the back
channel contacts, which preceded the Agra summit, during which the
General was reported to have promised to rein in the jehadi
organisations as a quid pro quo for certain steps to be taken by
India. This report titled "Musharraf Was Ready To Surrender
Jehad" has not so far been picked up by any Pakistani newspaper for
fear of annoying the General.
* Planting a story by Kamran Khan, the investigative
journalist, in the "News" about the US pressure on the bin
Laden and the Taliban issues.
* Sending instructions to the Amir of the Taliban to
hold on to the voluntary workers and to resist any pressure on this
issue from Musharraf through Lt.Gen.Moinudeen Haider, the Mohajir
Interior Minister.
* Instigating the Islamic organisations to oppose the
stationing of UN monitors in Pakistani territory.
* Advising the jehadi organisations to step up their
activities not only in J&K, but also in other parts of India.
The present battle of wits between Musharraf and his
Mohajir coterie on the one side and the Army of Islam group on the other
reminds one of a similar battle of wits between Mr.Nawaz Sharif on the one
side and Musharraf and Aziz on the other during and after the Kargil
conflict. It may be recalled that:
* To embarrass Nawaz and to put him on the defensive,
Musharraf and Aziz got planted in the Pakistan press stories about the
role played by Lt.Gen.Ziauddin, the then DG of the ISI, in the arrest
and harassment of Mr.Najam Sethi, the Editor of the "Friday
Times" and about the back channel contacts between Nawaz and
Mr.A.B.Vajpayee, the Indian Prime Minister, at the height of the Kargil
conflict.
* When Nawaz sent Lt.Gen.Ziauddin to Kandahar to
pressurise the Taliban Amir to co-operate with the US on the bin Laden
issue and to act against the Sunni extremists taking sanctuary in
Afghanistan, Musharraf sent Aziz to Kandahar to tell the Amir to
disregard the instructions of Ziauddin.
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet
Secretariat, Govt. of India, and, presently, Director, Institute For
Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: corde@vsnl.com
)
