Agra Summit : failure
dissected
by Dr. Subhash Kapila
This paper may be read in conjunction with the following papers of the
author:
1. India’s Invitation to Gen. Musharraf: A policy blunder Paper
No. 247
2. India Pakistan Agra Summit: The Imponderables Paper
No. 267
3. Pakistan’s one point agenda for Agra summit Paper
No. 270
The Agra Summit between Prime minister Vajpayee and President Musharraf
has come and gone. It was a summit meeting which had been over
analysed in the run up to the event and over hyped by the Indian
electronic media with wild over exaggeration.
The Agra summit has been a failure despite whatever spin officially put
forward by India and Pakistan, the day after. Whether it is termed
as inconclusive or as the beginning of a process of negotiations as both
Foreign ministers indulged in damage control, the significant point that
stands out is that the differences between India and Pakistan remain
irreconcilable on fundamental issues.
The aim of this paper is not to dwell and highlight what already stands
stated in the Indian and Pak media but to address some basic points in a
perspective mode.
Jammu & Kashmir Issue Reconcilable? : The J&K issue in
terms of declared principled stand of India and Pakistan are
irreconcilable. Pakistan relentlessly exhibited its one point agenda
on J&K at the Agra summit. That it did so was no surprise (See
paper 247 referred to in the beginning) and that is why India’s
unconditional invitation to President Musharraf was analysed as a policy
blunder. Pakistan in any future summit meetings or official level
talks is highly unlikely to budge from this stance. Its obduracy to
any change will be further strengthened by what it demonstrated and
achieved at Agra. Similarly, it will be suicidal for any Indian
political leader to maintain that the J&K issue is negotiable.
The J&K issue is therefore irreconcilable, more so, when Pakistan is
adamant that other contentious issues including CBMs are peripheral and
that the J&K must be discussed first.
Pakistan’s Obduracy Sustained by India’s Chimerical Stands on
J&K Issue -India Needs to be Unambiguous: Pakistan’s obduracy on
the issue to a great extent has been fuelled and sustained by India’s
chimerical attitude and approach on the J&K issue. India’s political
leaders, officials and particularly India’s drawing room liberals and
Indian media elite through their utterances and discussions in seminars
and policy analyses in the media have given a sense to Pakistan that India
is ready to negotiate and discuss the J&K issue. India’s Track
II diplomacy, especially through Pakistani Americans by the PMO, has been
a major culprit. India has to come out politically and officially
that J&K question is unambiguously non negotiable. The unanimous
special resolution of the Parliament in 1993 declared it so. It is
ironic that the ruling party i.e. The Bharathiya Janata Party should have
allowed its government to even negotiate on this subject. India’s
resolve should be shown upfront on this issue and not behind the
scenes. India’s liberal fraternity does not represent the feelings
of the masses and recollect the 1998 nuclear test and its aftermath.
Proxy War and Cross Border Terrorism: India failed to convince
Pakistan on this issue and elicit responses that logically should have
come from a government claiming itself as moderate Islamic and
responsible. The Pakistan President claimed that the proxy war
sponsored by Pakistan and the Islamic Jehadi terrorists activity in
J&K is that of "freedom fighters." The Pakistani Foreign
minister made the absurd claim that there was no "cross border
terrorism" and that India has not raised the issue of "cross LAC
terrorism" and in any case the LOC is not the international border
between Pakistan and India. Pakistan has thus made it abundantly
clear that it will not discuss the issue.
Conclusion: The Agra summit has been a failure and on that score
there should be no doubt. That it was inconclusive is borne by the
fact that both sides could not arrive at a joint declaration with their
irreconcilable positions.
The summit can neither be realistically termed as the beginning of a
process of negotiation as the stand of both the countries was non
negotiable.
The major concern of the international community related to both
countries arriving at some "Nuclear risk reduction" initiatives
to pre-empt South Asia featuring as a nuclear flash point. Pakistan
peremptorily dismissed this subject at the Agra summit as a peripheral
issue. In any case it is wrong for the international community to
assess Kashmir as a nuclear flash point.
The Agra summit sees Pakistan’s President Musharraf in Pakistan’s
perceptions as a victor. He stood up to India and maintained its
stand on J&K and proxy war as non negotiable. His standing (as a
Mohajir) in Pakistan’s army is reinforced and his image as a political
leader in the context of the expected General elections has soared.
The summit should be a soul-searching experience for India’s
political leaders and policy makers. India needs to come out
unambiguously and forcefully that Kashmir is non negotiable and that it is
neither a "dispute" nor an "issue" India should
desist from a semantic exercise on this topic. It should assert that
any future meetings can only concentrate on issues that can contribute to
peace and stability in south Asia.
Lastly, India has to make it clear to the international community that
1. Jammu & Kashmir topic is non negotiable 2. India can
withstand Pakistani blackmail of proxy war in J&K and Islamic Jihad
all over India. 3. India is strong enough to Call the Pakistani
bluff of nuclear blackmail.
The international community and particularly the United States has
created the "Pakistani Tiger" and they should know what it is to
ride a tiger.
(Dr. Subhash Kapila is an International Relations and
Strategic Affairs analyst. He can be reached on e-mail for
discussion at esdecom@vsnl.com)
