MUSHARRAF: ANOTHER RETREAT?
by B.Raman
(To be read in continuation of the earlier piece
titled " Musharraf: From CIA With Love?" )
It is learnt there has been intense speculation in
Islamabad regarding the hardline pronouncements on Indo-Pakistan
relations, with specific reference to Kashmir, made by Mr.Abdul Sattar,
the Pakistani Foreign Minister, at Peshawar after the receipt of the
invitation to Gen.Musharraf, the self-styled Chief Executive, from Shri
A.B. Vajpayee, the Indian Prime Minister, to visit New Delhi.
The speculation revolves round the following questions:
* Did Mr.Sattar make the statements on his own because he
is against the General going to New Delhi without a prior commitment by
India that Jammu & Kashmir would be the core issue of the discussion
?
* Or did he make the statement at the instance of the
General, who is under pressure from the jehadis not to go to New Delhi?
* Or did he make it at the instigation of some Corps
Commanders such as Lt.Gen.Mohammed Aziz, who do not want the General to
go unless Kashmir is to be treated as the core issue?
The jehadi organisations and their supporters in the
Army have maintained their criticism of the General. They allege
that just as Mr.Nawaz Sharif, former Prime Minister, played a double game
during the Kargil war of 1999 by openly supporting the Pakistani Army's
war efforts, but secretly talking to India without the knowledge of the
Army, similarly, the General, while openly endorsing the jehad in J &
K, has been secretly in touch with India without the knowledge of many of
the Corps Commanders.
They also reportedly allege that Maj.Gen. (retd) Mahmud
Ali Durrani had secretly met in a South-East Asian capital a
non-governmental emissary of the Govt. of India, , that a brother of
Gen.Musharraf, who lives in the US, had secretly visited New Delhi for
talks, and that the General had secretly sent an emissary to Sardar
Ataullah Khan Mengal, the Balochi leader, and Mr.Altaf Hussain, the
Mohajir leader of the Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM), both of whom live in
London, in order to seek their intercession with New Delhi for getting an
invitation to visit New Delhi.
According to the General's detractors, his expectation
is that a high-profile visit to New Delhi would improve his image and
facilitate a smooth implementation of his plans to have himself
"elected" as the President of Pakistan around August 10 and
sworn in as the President on August 14, Pakistan's Independence Day.
Political circles close to the mainstream political
parties, while welcoming the resumption of the bilateral dialogue at the
political level, are troubled by the timing of the invitation and the
proposed scheduling of the summit in July, when they expect the General to
set in motion his craftily worked-out scenario to have himself
"elected" and proclaimed as the President. They feel that
the Govt. of India should have waited till the political situation with
reference to the General's plans to take over as the President clarified
itself.
The prospects of Gen.Musharraf being overthrown or eased
out before July by his detractors in the Army appear remote, though such
an eventuality cannot be totally ruled out. A greater possibility is
that the General himself, rattled by the criticism and the allegations
against him, might raise impossible conditions for the summit in the hope
that India itself might reverse its invitation.
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet
Secretariat, Govt. of India, and, presently, Director, Institute For
Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: corde@vsnl.com
)
