Paper no. 147
INDIA–U.S. RELATIONS AND THE CHINA FACTOR:
Realities and Compulsions
by Rajesh Kumar Mishra
Towards its realisation of the "Common Vision" based on
converging grounds and aims, the recent visit of the Indian Prime Minister to U.S.A
includes the needs and expectations of Indian defense and development. The new upcoming
impressive coalition of the two vibrant democracies may generate considerable speculations
within and outside the Indian subcontinent.
In the post cold war era, new international identities and
relations are being inexorably constructed to translate the past experience of individual
nations into new opportunities. While the core issues of bilateral and multilateral
dialogues still hover around the traditional principles of national interest, contemporary
compulsions are incorporated with utmost attention. Accordingly the recognition and image
of a nation in today’s changing global order essentially requires intellectually
articulate policy-making. Each step taken today has long term international ramifications.
A significant stride in this direction has been taken by the
Indian Prime Minister, Shri Atal Behari Vajpayee, at the UN Millennium Summit while
calling the world community to see through "Orwellian mockery of truth" and
upholding the Indian stance that "dialogue and terrorism just can not go
together". Though, the Prime Ministerial utterance was more Pakistan-centric
and less regional, it included the long term vision for a world-free from terrorism and
weapons of mass destruction. The Indian commitment to the global body was reassured with a
desire for the expansion in the Security Council’s membership. Still, India has a
long way to go to convince the world of its neighbourhood policies and compulsions that
restricts her otherwise from several constructive engagements. Of late, India has
been substantially successful in clearing a number of misconceptions about India in the
international environment. The tough task ahead is to build and maintain better
India-U.S relations in future and equally look into Sino-Indian relations with a positive
attitude.
The China Factor
Today, amidst a realist and transitional world politics, no
Indian foreign policy making could be bereft of Chinese intentions and attitudes towards
India. To foresee the tentative trends in India-U.S and China- India relations, one needs
to have a close look into the debated or emerging perceptions among the Chinese scholars
on Sino-U.S relations along with their line of thinking with regard to India.
This paper enumerates few common derivatives drawn upon the
following viewpoints of different Chinese scholars on the U.S.A in general and on the U.S-
India relations in particular.
1. The next 10 to 15 years will be the fastest as well as the
taking-shape period of the development of multi-polar world configuration. With changes of
situation in world’s most influential areas as well as the unbalanced development of
power centers and the constant readjustment of their relations among each other,
particularly the rise of China, Japan, ASEAN, India, EU, etc., it is expected to form a
multipolar world political pattern formed by three core areas, namely, America, Europe and
Asia and five power centers, which are, the United States, EU, Japan, China and Russia. (Li
Zhongcheng, "The Role Of An Emerging China In World Politics", Contemporary
International Relations, Vol.8, No.2, 1998, p.9)
2. Since the end of the cold war, the United States has never
formulated a relatively comprehensive and mature policy towards South Asia that conforms
with its long-term interests.---------It has proposed to open up a new era of constructive
cooperation and establish a broad strategic partnership with India and tried hard to drag
India into the US-dominated world order and its strategic orbit in the South Asian
region.------the reshaping of US strategy towards South Asia is not only solely a change
in its policy to gain a firm foothold in the South Asian region, but also one of the
important measures it has adopted to further adjust its strategy in the Asia-Pacific
region with an aim far beyond its strategic interest in South Asia. (Yang Haisheng,
"An Attention-Getting Readjustment of US Policy Towards South Asia", International
Strategic Studies, No.3, Serial No.57, July2000, pp.31-35)
3. The target of the "engagement and enlargement
strategy" points to the establishment of "a unique world leading position"
of the United States through more aggressive "engagement" in the affairs of all
regions and nations of the world to "enlarge" and advance U.S. interests, values
and political and economic modes.------And the potential threats mainly refer to the fact
that Russia and China may become global adversaries after 2015 to the United
States.-----------U.S. hegemonism may prevail for a while but is difficult to last for
long. Its scheme for the establishment of a "unipolar" world shall not succeed.
( Shang Hong, "The U. S National Security Strategy and Its Impact on
the International Security", International Strategic Studies, No.3, Serial
No.57, July2000, pp. 19-24 )
4. Instead of pursuing a globalisation based on equality and
mutual respect, Washington, the sole super power with a significant impact on the course
of world developments, is seeking to turn globalisation into Americanisation. (Zhang
Minqian, "Globalisation versus US strategy", Contemporary
International Relations, Vol.10, No.6, June2000, p.10)
5. The "Single Pole" versus
"multi-pole" conflict is expected to flare up in the course of realignments in
international relations.------guided by the multipolar concept in their search for global
power equilibrium, the other big powers will readjust their foreign policies in light of
their national interests and enhanced interdependence among them in the international
power configuration. Absence of major strategic divisions among China, India, Russia and
France indicates that they would be the major forces promoting the process of
"multipolarisation". (Lu Zhongwei, "International Scene at
the Dawn of a New Century", Contemporary International Relations, Vol.10,
No.1, 2000, pp.7-8)
6. By publishing the "Four Year’s Appraisal
Report" (Report published in 1997), of Pentagon, the US is making the strategic
offensive in the globe to push the world after the cold war to a new roily period, posing
a severe threat to the peace and development. (Wang Zaibang,
"Refelections on the Transformation of World Pattern and Responsibility
Adjustment", Contemporary International Relations,Vol.10, No.2, February2000,
p.11)
7. After the end of Cold War the "common threat" for
the US-led NATO has disappeared. In order to legalize their external intervention and
expansion, they have spared no efforts to fabricate all kinds of absurd
"theories", e.g., "the human rights above the sovereignty",
"humanitarian intervention" , " no national boundaries for the internal
affairs", " collision of civilizations" and so on. ( Sa Bennwang,
"The Past Not Forgotten Is a Guide for the Future", International Strategic
Studies, No.3, Serial No.57, July2000, p.39)
8. To keep the world arms race under control, U.S. military
hegemonism must be stopped. It is a source of worsening global security. (News From
China, 12 July 2000, p.17)
9. After India and Pakistan conducted nuclear tests in succession
in May 1998, China and the U.S. have consulted and cooperated with each other closely and
taken a common standpoint for the purpose of stability in South Asia and the International
goal on the prevention of nuclear proliferation. (Chu Shulong,
"Bilateral and Regional Strategic and Security Relationship Between China and the US
after the Cold War", Contemporary International Relations, Vol.10, No.5, May
2000, p.8)
COMMON DERIVATIVES
1. Chinese foreign and strategic world views revolve around the
American post-cold war policies and initiatives, i.e., the U.S.A’s international
behaviour remains pivotal to the Chinese international perceptions.
2. With corollary to the derivative 1, China vehemently opposes
the idea of "hegemony" in any world order and instead supports
"multi-polarity" of power.
3. While advocating for multi-polar world order, China desires to
become a potential alternative centre of power in any international system, if not equal
at least at par with the US.
4. Despite glaring limitations in technological advancements in
China, while the Chinese scholars and officials begin their propositions with "world
peace and development", they inadvertently find the clash of interests with America
at almost all the present and prospective conflict areas of the world.
5. Perhaps, it will take considerably long time when the US
itself should bring necessary changes in its policy of "engagement" and China
would unequivocally participate in it.
Imperatives for India:
6. Mutual distrust and misperceptions between China and the U.S
might directly affect the Sino-US relations and indirectly but substantially it would
affect their influence over the South Asian regional configuration.
7. India is being rarely referred directly in the Chinese world
propositions but the progress in Indian defence and development is seen by the Chinese
scholars as a potential rising power.
8. The improvement in US-India relations is being viewed with
suspicions and apprehension.
9. Better India-America relation is being perceived as a threat
to the Chinese scheme of things in Asia which may further affect India-Pakistan relations.
10. On the issues of non-proliferation, both China and USA share
a common view regarding Indian achievements. However, international reports project a
"hide and seek" behavioural interaction when it comes to their individual
maneuverings.
Conclusion:
Evoking a sense of mystery in international relations has long
been a significant foreign policy characteristic of China. Therefore, to understand the
Chinese intention in international relation one needs unending curiosity and an
enterprising patience. Consequently, the principles of "Caution and moderation"
are best suited to the Indian policy-making.
Indian quest for raising international standing and finding more
space for diplomatic manoeuvering must be the essential part of any Indian foreign policy
initiative.
Further, a nation’s indispensable economic strength has
shown its importance in withering away of the Soviet empire. Also, India already in the
past had lost several opportunities to be at the front in line with other industrialised
states. Recent world recognition of India as an emerging IT giant, should be invigorated
with maximum possible support policies. Perhaps then that China will also come forward and
strengthen the hands of unity and prosperity.
25.9.2000
