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Paper no. 141

PAKISTAN ON EVE OF P.M.'S VISIT TO US

by  B.Raman

 

MUSHARRAF: A POST OCT 12, 1999, PROFILE

*  A plodder.

*  A good listener.

*  Very loyal to subordinates who are loyal to him.

*  Encourages subordinates to speak out their mind freely & frankly.

*  While continuing the ban on public political meetings & processions, has allowed his critics to let out steam through the media.

*  Corporate style of decision-making. All important decisions taken inconsultation with Corps Commanders.

* Poor in analysis & judgement. A typical commando-- brave, unyielding and unrelenting towards perceived adversaries and ready to be devious for achieving his objective. A typical example of his deviousness in action was seen when he forced the judiciary to take a new oath under the Provisional Constitutional Order. He kept the Chief Justice of the Federal Supreme Court and some other Judges, who refused to take the oath, confined to their houses, told the other judges that the Chief Justice had already taken the new oath and made them do so. Only thereafter, did he release the Chief Justice and the other non-cooperative Judges from their virtual house arrest.

*  Before the coup, his social interactions largely limited to fellow senior Army officers and that too to fellow commandos and Mohajirs. Very   limited social interactions with officers of the Air Force, the Navy and the Police and the rest of the civilian bureaucracy.

* When he seized power on Oct.12, 1999, he hardly knew the civilian bureaucracy. The civilians, serving or retired, on whom he relied initially were either the dregs of the Zia regime or from amongst those who had incurred the wrath of Nawaz Sharif.

* Insensitive to the feelings and ego of the civilian bureaucrats and has antagonised them as a class through his system of military monitoring of the work of the civilian bureaucracy. Consequently, the bureaucracy has been sulking and avoiding giving him sound advice and correcting him, telling itself "it serves him right." In his telecast after seizing power, he told his people: "You will not see uniform except mine', but now there are military officers ----in civvies and not in uniform---monitoring the work of every District Administration and every Government Department in the provincial and Federal Secretariats, giving rise to suppressed resentment.  Senior civilian bureaucrats periodically called to appear before the Corps Commanders to explain and justify their policies. In the Foreign Office, all files to the Foreign Secretary on administrative and accounts matters are vetted by a Brigadier.

* Amenable to pressure from the Islamic political parties and extremist organisations.

SOFT TO ISLAMIC PARTIES & EXTREMIST ORGANISATIONS

The fear of the mosques, the madrasas and the bazaaris combining together against him has been an important factor influencing his governance.

Under the pressure from the Islamic parties, he has played down the urgency of signing the CTBT, assured them that the Turkish system would not be one of the models to be considered by his Government for emulation of the good features, went back on his announcement that he would introduce procedural changes to prevent vexatious action by the police under the blasphemy law, issued an ordinance to remove any doubts about the continued validity of the Islamic provisions of the 1973 Constitution, particularly that relating to the declaration of the Ahamadiyas as non-Muslims and excluding them from key posts in Government service, diluted action against the madrasas training jehadists and rejected the recommendation of the Election Commission for the restoration of the joint electorate system.

While claiming to have succeeded in persuading the Taliban to close down some of the training camps of Pakistan-based terrorist groups in Afghan territory, including one of the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HUM) and another of the Jaish-e-Mohammed of Maulana Masood Azhar, who was released by the Government of India on December 31,1999, in response to the demand of the HUM hijackers of an IAC plane, he has avoided any pressure on the Taliban on the bin Laden issue.

While expressing his determination to act against Islamic sectarian elements spreading violence in Pakistan and against Arab extremists misusing Pakistani hospitality for activities against their States of origin, he has ruled out any action against groups active against the Indian security forces in Jammu & Kashmir, on the ground that they are jehadists and not terrorists and that their actions are in retaliation for the atrocities allegedly committed by the Indian security forces.

Having tasted success on these issues, the Islamic parties have now stepped up pressure on him:

*  To restore Friday as the weekly holiday instead of Sunday.

*  To withdraw his proposal for the reservation of a certain number of the seats in the new local bodies to be set up next year for women. The Islamic parties say this would "spread vulgarity in politics."

*  To curb or ban the activities of non-governmental organisations (NGOs) advocating women's rights, abolition of child labour, action against honour killings and moderation of the blasphemy law.

*  To reject the conditionalities of the IMF and to Islamise the economy.

In the way he has dealt with the Islamic parties, two disturbing traits of his have come to notice:

* While he has had no hesitation in confronting the mainstream political parties and acting against them even at the risk of street violence, he has repeatedly shown an unwillingness to confront the Islamic parties and allowed himself to be cowed down by them into conceding their demands. Thus, one sees the Islamic parties taking advantage of the disarray amongst the mainstream political parties and the General's curbs on their activities to strengthen their street power and manoeuvring ability.

* Whenever his colleagues in the Cabinet (Example: the confrontation between Mr.Abdul Sattar, Foreign Minister, and Qazi Husain Ahmad, the Amir of the Jamaat-e- Islami (JEI), on the CTBT issue) have come under vicious attack from the Islamic parties for doing or saying what he wanted them to do or say, he has avoided defending them in public and, instead, withdrawn into the background. The Islamic parties called Mr.Sattar a traitor to Pakistan and the Ummah and a spokesman of the US Administration; the General never once deplored this campaign and defended Mr.Sattar.

Abdul Malik Kasi, Minister for Religious Affairs, told the "Washington Post" on June 22,2000:" The religious groups are not a threat to this regime. Most of them want to co-operate with us because we are trying to get rid of corruption. The Government cannot afford to rub the religious groups the wrong way. If we hit them with a stick, they will hit us with a gun."

STYLE OF GOVERNANCE

Five-tier structure: The monitoring mechanism in the Districts and Secretariats---the National Reconstruction Bureau--the National Security Council---the Corps Commanders Conference--the Cabinet. All decisions in the Corps Commanders' conference generally taken by consensus. Musharraf avoids forcing through decisions about which the Corps Commanders have reservations.

MUSHARRAF'S KITCHEN CABINET

Musharraf has a small kitchen Cabinet consisting of the following three, which vets all proposals before they go to the Cabinet or the Corps Commanders:

*  Lt.Gen.Mahmood Ahmed, CO, 10 Corps, Rawalpindi, at the time of the Coup and now DG, ISI. His friendship with Musharraf goes back to almost 31 years, when the two had served together in the same Artillery unit. In 1995, on the appointment Lt.Gen.Ali Quli Khan as CO, 10 Corps, by Gen.Abul Waheed Kakkar, the then COAS, Lt.Gen. Mahmood Ahmed, then a Major-Gen., took over from him as DGMI.  He was promoted as Lt.Gen. in June 1998, and posted by Gen. Jehangir Karamat, the then COAS, as Commandant, National Defence College. On taking over as the COAS in October, 1998, Gen.Musharraf  brought him as CO 10 Corps. Posted, after the coup, as DG, ISI, vice Lt.Gen.Ziauddin. There have recently been reports of differences between him and Gen.Musharraf. It is alleged that since Lt.Gen. Mahmood Ahmed's visit to Washington after Clinton's visit to Pakistan in March to meet George Tenet, Director, CIA, Gen.Musharraf suspects him of trying to ingratiate himself with the Americans behind his back.

*  Lt.Gen. Mohammad Aziz, the Chief of the General Staff (CGS), in the GHQ.  A Sudan from POK. The only Kashmiri among the present Lt.Gens and reputed to be the leading Kashmir expert of the Pakistan Army and intelligence community. Amongst the present Lt.Gens., he had spent the maximum number of years in the POK and the Northern Areas as an Infantry Officer of the Punjab Regiment and as an officer of the Special Services Group (SSG). His personal friendship with Gen.Musharraf dates back to the days when they had served together in the SSG. He was  No.2 in the ISI for three years before 1999, supervising the proxy war in Kashmir and the pro-Taliban operations in Afghanistan. In 1999 beginning, on his promotion as Lt.Gen., Gen. Musharraf brought him to the GHQ as the CGS, even though, at that time, he was the juniormost Lt.Gen. and the previous practice had been to appoint a senior, if not the  seniormost, Lt.Gen. as the CGS. In appreciation of his services  in organising the coup on October 12, Gen.Musharraf gave him additional charge of the set-up for monitoring the loyalty and work of the civilian bureaucracy and also, concurrently, made him responsible for supervising the work of the Administration in Punjab. Very close to the Islamic political parties and extremist organisations and is reputed to be the Mullahs' General. Disliked by the Americans, who regard him as the evil genius behind the activities of the Taliban and the extremist organisations in Kashmir.  Recently, there have been reports that   Musharraf has started distrusting him and wants to ease him out of the GHQ.

*  Lt.Gen.(retd) Moinuddin Haider, Interior Minister, who was recently inducted into the NSC. A Mohajir.Socially very close to Musharraf. In his testimony before the Karachi court which tried him on the  hijacking charge, Nawaz Sharif said his troubles with Musharraf started from the day he removed Lt.Gen.Haider as the Sindh Governor.

DOMESTIC POLITICAL SCENE

*  Till now, Musharraf has been giving the impression that he would stick to the three-year deadline set by the Supreme Court for the restoration of an elected Government.

*  His programme for the devolution of powers to the local bodies and for partyless elections to them between December, 2000, and August, 2001, has met with widespread criticism, not only from the mainstream political parties, but also from the Islamic parties. Many have compared it to Ayub Khan's Basic Democracies. Regardless of the criticism, he seems to be determined to go ahead with the plan.

*  He has been holding discussions with a carefully-selected cross-section of political leaders---from the mainstream as well as Islamic parties--- on the political situation in the country. The objective of the discussions is not clear. This seems to be essentially a tactical move to give an impression to critics at home and abroad that he is not insensitive to their concerns about the need for an early restoration of the political process.

*  From the various statements made by him and his lieutenants, it is apparent that his mind has been working along the following lines: (I). To target Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto as individual leaders and make it impossible for them to return to power through appropriate legislation debarring from politics persons convicted of serious instances of corruption and misuse of office; (ii) At the same time, not to target the PML and the PPP as political parties so long as they rid themselves of their corrupt elements--he realises that if these parties are weakened beyond recovery, the ultimate beneficiaries might be the Islamic and sectarian parties and organisations; (iii). Through appropriate Constitutional amendments, to restore to the President the power to dismiss the Prime Minister if the latter misuses his office and to guarantee to the military a role in the governance of the country through the National Security Council (NSC) or other mechanism, even after the restoration of democracy. His bottom-line seems to be: Democracy will be ultimately restored, but on the military's terms and in colours and at a pace to be determined by the military. He has arrogated to himself and the military the right to determine which model would suit the country and the Armed Forces.

*  There are signs of growing disenchantment in the country with the military leadership in general and with his style of governance in particular. The continuing economic difficulties, despite a slight improvement in the economic situation mainly due to a rise in agricultural output except in respect of sugarcane, have added to this disenchantment.

*  After an initial improvement immediately after he seized power, the law and order situation has again started deteriorating---with the revival of sectarian clashes and acts of terrorism in different parts of the country by unidentified groups. The Army is particularly concerned over the recent explosions in Balochistan, which indicate that the Balochistan Liberation Army, which had been effectively suppressed by Zulfiquar Ali Bhutto in the 1970s, has been rearing its head again. There have also been reports of violent clashes in the POK between the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HUM) and the Jaish-e-Mohammed of Maulana Masood Azhar and of differences in the military leadership as to how to deal with the situation. Lt.Gen.Haider, the Interior Minister, has reportedly been advocating a stronger line against the organisations involved in the violence, whereas Lt.Gen.Mohammed Aziz seems to be in favour of a soft line. Faced with contradictory advice, Musharraf's policy has been characterised by vacillations---initially supporting Haider's strong line and then retreating when the extremist organisations react violently. It is becoming increasingly doubtful whether he would be able to carry out his proclaimed policy of deweaponisation of the Pakistani society and making the madrasas the producers of pious, but employable, technically competent students and not jehadist mercenaries. Like his political predecessors, Musharraf has started concealing his inability to control the slide in the law and order situation by blaming India for it.

*  The country is yet to recover from the widespread public disenchantment with the mainstream political parties because of the misdeeds of Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif. As a result, the people's equal disenchantment with the military regime is not showing any signs of translating itself into a willingness to support a mass movement against the military similar to the Movement for the Restoration of Democracy (MRD) during the Zia regime in the 1980s.

THE ECONOMIC SITUATION

*  There has been a slight improvement in the economic indicators since Musharraf took over due to bumper wheat and cotton crops. Pakistan, which had been an importer of wheat till last year to meet its requirements and those of Afghanistan, is hoping to export this year.

*  Pakistan's medium and small-scale industries (leather and sports goods and carpets) had always been doing well even in the worst of times. The problem has generally been in respect of the large-scale manufacturing industries, nearly 75 per cent of which are agriculture-related--textiles, sugar and fertilisers. The only major non-agriculture related industries are cement, automobiles and steel. Its industrial and export performance is, therefore, largely related to the performance of its agriculture. The bumper cotton crop this year has resulted in improved textile production and exports. This has, however, been neutralised by a steep fall in sugarcane and sugar production. It may have to import sugar this year.

*  The main reasons for Pakistan's economic problems are the poor state of the educational system partly due to the neglect by the State and partly due to the negative influence of the Mullahs; the tendency of large sections of the population to avoid paying their taxes and utility (water, electricity and telephones) charges; the tendency of the business class to avoid paying back the loans taken from the banks; large-scale corruption and inefficiency in the banking system; the mounting level of internal and external borrowings by the State to meet even non-development expenditure; and the failure of successive leaderships to set right this rot.

*  Musharraf came to office with promises to cut down borrowing; to recover the outstanding loans from the defaulters and to increase the tax revenue by reducing tax evasion through better documentation of the economy and by the imposition of the sales tax even on retail sales and utility charges. His high-profile drive against bank defaulters has largely fizzled out, with the State itself slowing down action due to fears of adverse impact on business morale. The military regime has been constrained to borrow from the domestic market as freely as the previous political regimes to meet the essential expenditure. The drive to increase tax revenue has not succeeded. The drive for better documentation had to be diluted due to opposition from the bazaaris, supported by the Mullahs. The coalition of the Mullahs, madrasas and bazaaris has continued to thwart efforts at economic reforms as effectively as they did during the previous regimes.

*  The morale in the economic bureaucracy has always been low due to the tendency of different regimes to import Pakistani economic experts from the US and put them on top of the bureaucracy as if the foreign-based experts would have magic remedies for Pakistan's economic ills. There has been an under-current of resentment in the economic bureaucracy over Musharraf's action in bringing from Washington Shaukat Aziz, a Vice-President of the Citibank, and making him the Finance Minister.

*  Shaukat Aziz is not really an economic expert. His forte is his ability as a networker and builder of personal contacts. In the 1990s, the Citibank went through a financial crisis and Shaukat Aziz, then the Bank's representative in Saudi Arabia, persuaded a number of Saudi ruling families to come to the Bank's rescue. In appreciation of his services, the Bank subsequently made him one of the Vice-Presidents.

*  Musharraf chose Shaukat Aziz as the Finance Minister because he thought that the latter, through the advantage of his wide contacts in the IMF bureaucracy in Washington, would be able to persuade the IMF to resume its assistance to Pakistan, which has remained suspended since May last year due to differences over Pakistan's perceived non-performance in implementing the IMF conditionalities such as the revision of the power tariffs and the tariff contracts with the independent power producers; better documentation of the economy; vigorous enforcement of the tax on agriculture at appropriate rates; levy of sales tax on retail sales and utility charges; and reduction of fiscal deficit. However, Shaukat Aziz has not so far been able to persuade the IMF to resume assistance.

*  As the economy's performance during 1999-2000 shows, Pakistan can manage, with some difficulty, its economy even without IMF assistance, provided its international creditors agree to re-schedule its debt and interest payments, as they did last December on a hint from the US and other Western Governments. Will they do so next December too? That is the foremost concern of the Musharraf Govt. now.

*  Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves, which came down below US $ one billion during the last months of the Sharif regime, have again gone up to about US $ 1.2 billion. Despite the continuing trade deficit and the fall in the flow of foreign investments and remittances from overseas Pakistanis, the State has been able to maintain the reserves at this level by tapping excess dollar liquidity in the open market. The State Bank of Pakistan has itself admitted in its periodic reports that it has been tapping the dollar liquidity from the open market, without explaining wherefrom this liquidity came at a time of negative flow of foreign money. There is a strong possibility that these are the earnings of the narcotics smugglers.(Reports received after this was written indicate that the reserves are again falling)

EXTERNAL RELATIONS

*  Pakistan's relations with China continue to be as close as before and there are reports of US intelligence origin indicating continuing Chinese assistance to Pakistan in the nuclear and missile fields. The periodic pro forma expression of US concern over this in its interactions with the Chinese authorities has not deterred China from continuing its assistance to Pakistan.

*  North Korea's assistance to Pakistan in the missile field is a purely commercial arrangement entered into by a cash and food hungry North Korean regime and is unrelated to any strategic interests or concerns of Pyongyang. There are no indications of any stoppage or slow-down of this assistance by North Korea, due to pressure from the US or Japan or both.

* While the recent visit of the Prime Minister of Japan, a major benefactor of Pakistan in the past, was viewed with satisfaction by the military regime as an important step in its efforts at international political rehabilitation, Tokyo continues to press for formal Pakistani adherence to the CTBT before resuming assistance under the overseas development programme.

*  The visits undertaken by Musharraf to the principal ASEAN member-countries had as its short-term objective the pressing of Pakistan's case for upgradation as a full-scale dialogue partner of the ASEAN and for admission to the ASEAN Regional Forum, which he has not been able to achieve. A longer-term objective seems to have been to weaken India's chances of securing regional endorsement for its candidacy for one of the permanent seats in the UN Security Council.

*  The desperate need of Colombo for arms supplies to stem the LTTE advance on Jaffna provided the military regime with a welcome opportunity to soften its image in Colombo by meeting part of its requirements with alacrity.

*  Musharraf has been able to get over the initial difficulties in his relations with the Gulf countries, which arose from the fact that Nawaz Sharif, who started his business career in Dubai, had a large circle of personal friends in the ruling families of the Gulf.

*  There has been an improvement in Pakistan's relations with Iran, which Musharraf has already visited twice, once bilaterally and once to attend the periodic summit of the Economic Co-operation Organisation. His prompt and positive response to Iran's request to re-consider Islamabad's negative attitude during the Nawaz Sharif regime to the project for an on-shore gas pipeline from Iran to India through Pakistan and the absence of any anti-Shia incidents in Afghanistan have played a role in this matter. Musharraf and his Foreign Minister, Abdul Sattar, have been giving the impression of showing greater sensitivity to Teheran's concerns over Afghanistan than the Benazir and Sharif regimes.

*  His highly-publicised visits to Turkey and Egypt have not brought any political dividends so far. While his appreciative references to the Turkish model of a modern Islamic State triggered off protests from the Islamic parties, thereby forcing him to assure them that he had no intention of emulating the Turkish model, his proposal for seeking the assistance of the Al Azhar University of Cairo for revamping the curricula of the Pakistani madrasas has so far been a non-starter. The Pakistani Mullahs do not want to have anything to do with the soft Islam of eitherTurkey or Egypt.

*  While continuing to stress the importance to Pakistan of Afghanistan remaining under the control of the Taliban regime, he has avoided hype and high profile on this issue. Assistance to the Taliban has been more discreet than in the past. While denying that Pakistan has any ability to pressurise the Taliban to moderate its policies on issues such as women's rights, support to foreign jehadists and the expulsion of Osama bin Laden, the military regime has claimed to have persuaded the Taliban to close down two training camps in its territory, one run by the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen and one by the Jaish-e-Mohammed. Its efforts to make the Taliban to expel from its territory anti-Shia sectarian terrorists of Pakistan such as Riaz Basra of the Sipah-e-Sahaba, Pakistan, have not yielded any results so far.

*  The relations with the Central Asian Republics (CARs) and Russia have been devoid of warmth because of the activities of jehadist mercenaries from the Taliban-controlled Afghan territory and Pakistan in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyztan, Tajikistan, Dagestan and Chechnya. The Governments of all these countries have been critical of Pakistan for failing to control the export of jehad from its territory and from Afghanistan. The relations with Moscow have hit a bad patch following the Taliban's recognition of the so-called independent Islamic Republic of Chechnya and the high-profile visit of a representative of this "Republic" to Pakistan where he was lionised by the JEI and other Islamic organisations. Ultimately, following repeated expression of displeasure by Moscow, he was asked to leave the country.

*  After the initial ostracization of the military regime, the British Government has shown some signs of a possible re-think in its policy. Export of defence and law and order enforcement related equipment is again being approved on a case by case basis. However, the British authorities have not responded positively to the requests of the military authorities for legal assistance in the investigation and prosecution of the cases against Altaf Hussain, the leader of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement, Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif.

*  Some of the typical personal traits of Musharraf-- his readiness to resist foreign pressure on matters considered important to Pakistani national interests and his willingness to oblige on matters not directly affecting Pakistan-- have been in evidence in the way he has handled Pakistan's relations with the US. Immediately after seizing power, his regime, through Foreign Minister Abdul Sattar, showed signs of flexibility with regard to repeated US requests for an early signature of the CTBT; but, when there was strong opposition to it from the Islamic parties, he reversed his stand and declined to sign the CTBT even if that meant continued denial of economic assistance and of a favourable US stance in the IMF. With alacrity, he had a Jordanian member of bin Laden's International Islamic Front for Jehad against the US and Israel arrested and deported from Pakistani territory, but has refrained from intervening with the Taliban on the US demand for the deportation or expulsion of bin Laden. He has acted against Arab and other foreign extremists based in Pakistani territory and threatening the interests of the US and the West Asian countries, but refrained from similar action against Pakistan-based terrorist groups threatening Indian interests. He has resisted US pressure for action against the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen, which was declared by the US as a terrorist organisation in October, 1997.

*  Musharraf refused to be intimidated by the strong criticism of Pakistan voiced by Clinton during his visit to Pakistan in March. He has taken the criticism in his stride and has chosen to wait it out till a new Administration came to power in Washington in January next. Explaining the USA's non-declaration of Pakistan as a State-sponsor of international terrorism despite strong evidence of Pakistani involvement in the sponsorship of terrorism against India, Michael Sheehan, the Co-ordinator of Counter-Terrorism in the US State Department, told the Washington correspondent of the "Outlook" (August 21,2000): "In the past, we have made clear our concerns to the Pakistani Govt. about their links to Kashmiri organisations, particularly to those (that are) designated terrorist organisations like the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen…For the HuM, we have asked for the Government of Pakistan to make sure that they have no links to that organisation. They have assured us that they do not. We have expressed concerns about terrorists passing through Pakistan. And, Pakistan, in the past, has co-operated with us on seizing terrorists and sending them back to justice to the US and other places. Their co-operation has been good and has been well-documented. On the other hand, we are concerned about those people that pass through there. We are working with them to make sure they can tighten down on that….. Pakistan is not a terrorist State. We have some issues with them. They have a record that needs improving, but they are not hostile to the US. And they co-operate with us on a lot of issues and it is not appropriate that it be put in a category like that. (Italics mine). I think Gen. Musharraf understands that the Taliban's policies need to change as they directly threaten Pakistan's stability. In my view, he understands that and has communicated that to the Taliban."

Thus, the US policy can be paraphrased as follows:

1.  The question of declaring Pakistan as a State-sponsor of international terrorism does not arise since it is not hostile to the US and has been co-operating with the US on terrorism issues affecting US interests.

II.  The US has been conveying to Pakistan its concerns over the activities of Pakistan-based groups threatening Indian interests and they have assured the US that Pakistan has no official links with them. So long as there are no such official links, the question of any action against the Govt. of Pakistan does not arise.

(24-8-00)

(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt.of India, and, Director, Institute for Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: corde@vsnl.com)