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Paper no. 137

Malaysia – Anwar is down but not the "reformasi"

by  C.S.Kuppuswamy


"If you are out of favour with the political leadership –no
matter how high you might rise in the government you
have very little protection ." - Joe Saunders

Anwar Ibrahim, the former Dy PM, was convicted and sentenced to 9 years in jail on charges of sexual misconduct on Aug 8, 2000. This sentence takes effect on completion of his first sentence of six years on charges of abuse of power imposed on him in April ’99 . The trial on the second charge had lasted for over 14 months, which was perhaps one of the longest in Malaysian history.

Anwar is now 53 and with these two sentences to run consecutively (and not concurrently) he will be in jail for 15 years from April ’99 to 2014. Even if he gets remission for good behaviour he will be in jail till 2009. He will also be disqualified from holding any public office for five years from the time of his release. He can hope to return to the political arena at the age of 66. Thus Dr.Mahathir in his usual style has not only vanquished Anwar but has demolished him to make it almost impossible for him to resurface during his reign as PM. The defence is hopeful of getting the sentence quashed in its appeal. There is also an outside chance in the long run, of the King granting a pardon.

Anwar's supporters had taken to the streets on Aug 4, when the verdict was originally scheduled to be delivered. There were a few hundreds but nowhere near  the thousands who had gathered at the time of his sacking in Sep ’98.

The verdict itself had not stirred up the emotions of the Malaysians, as before. These indicate A. That Mahathir is in full control of the situation. B. The party 'Keadilan' started by Anwar's wife had not made any major dent probably due to internal dissensions.

The first trial had its political fallout in the last general elections and party (UMNO) elections, eroding the party’s image and causing a vertical split among the Malays of the country. Unfortunately there is no major political event in the near future to assess the damage caused by the verdict on the second trial.

Going into the ramifications of both these convictions on the country as a whole and on the body politic, the following observations can be made:

*  The verdict on the sodomy charge has generally been considered   harsh and has evoked widespread criticism in the international media (though not in the Malaysian media ) from no less than the US Vice President Al Gore, Australian PM John Howard, some cabinet ministers of New Zealand and Canada and some human rights organisations.

*  The Malaysian Government has rejected the criticisms levelled against it and reiterated that Anwar has had a fair trial. Dr. Mahathir while talking to a Saudi newsperson clarified that the court must have given the sentence only after due consideration of the facts of the case. He added that "He (Anwar) is the one who is involved in some conspiracy to try and promote himself to be the PM sooner than it was thought possible for him."

*  The one to bear the brunt of the verdict will be the political party "Keadilan" (Justice) started by Wan Azizan Wan Ismail (wife of Anwar) , which has already been rocked by some internal dissensions. The party will have to function without the physical presence of Anwar for a long time.

*  The beneficiary (at least in the short term) will be the fundamentalist muslim party PAS (Islamic party) which had become the major opposition party in the last general elections.

*  This verdict has also given a fillip to the ultimate goal of PAS of an Islamic State, to which more Malays may now be inclined to. This is not in the best interest of the other two races - Chinese and Indians.

*  The verdict cannot be construed as a setback to democracy in the country but the Malaysian judicial system is certainly under a cloud. The new bar council chairman Sulaiman Abdullah in an interview to an international weekly in July 2000, had pointed out the weaknesses in the Malaysian judicial system.

*  There were virtually no comments in the local media except for a matter of fact reporting "of the verdict". The press for its survival was careful in reporting.

*  The UMNO's position in the coalition has been further weakened . Within the party also members with leanings towards Anwar dare not go against the wishes of the PM.

No one can predict the post-Dr Mahathir scenario. Musa Hitam, a former Dy PM under Mahathir, remarked that "Abdullah is a nice guy though there are some who feel he is too soft. But the next man is always considered as less capable." The US Government seems to be already thinking about this as evidenced by a news item which indicated that the American Intelligence community organised a conference in Washington on June 22, 2000 on "Prospects for a Post-Mahathir Malaysia."

The dependence of Dr. Mahathir and UMNO on the Chinese and Indian parties has increased and they may become more vocal in demanding their due share in the government. As an indication of this Dr. Mahathir said in a speech at the opening of the general assembly of the Malaysian Chinese Association that " I am confident that one day, when ethnic Chinese and Indians can be accepted by all races, then the Prime minister’s post will not come from the Malays only." But it is too good to be true.

It has come to light that proposals are underway to slowdown the "affirmative action" that has helped the Malays and affected the Non-Malays (especially the Chinese) through the country’s New Economic Policy implemented in 1971. Dr. Mahathir seems to have realised the shortcomings of the NEP and its impact on the country’s economy. Support of the minority communities had become all the more essential for the coalition government.

Harvey Stockwin, a leading columnist from Hongkong, has aptly summed up the issue that " Dr. Mahathir has been able to crush Anwar politically, though he has not been able to crush Anwar’s spirit." As long as there is steady economic progress in the country the "Reformasi" cannot gain any momentum and the status quo would remain. But once the economy goes awry, will Mahathir or his successor be able to continue in the same manner?

22.8.2000