The so-far available details of the rocket attacks near or
towards buildings in Islamabad housing US and UN offices on November 12 are too scanty to
permit a definitive assessment as to who was responsible and their future implications.
However, certain tentative hypotheses are possible.
The fact that the attacks took place on the Friday preceding
November 14, when the UN's threatened sanctions against the Taliban Government in
Afghanistan for its failure to co-operate in bringing Osama bin Laden to justice went into
force and that US and UN offices were the apparent targets indicate a linkage between the
attacks and the UN-imposed sanctions. The US had played a leading role in facilitating a
consensus in the UN Security Council on this issue.
Reports of the rockets used --- remote-controlled free- flight
rockets with a range of 3.5 kms, according to Lt.Gen. (retd) Hamid Gul, former
Director-General of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) --- and the seemingly non-lethal
manner of the attacks indicate that the aim was more to convey a message to the US, the UN
and Gen.Pervez Musharraf, the self-proclaimed Mohajir Chief Executive of Pakistan, than to
inflict serious damage or casualties.
The suspected linkage with the UN sanctions would immediately
point the needle of suspicion at the Taliban and the members of bin Laden's International
Islamic Front for Jihad against the US and Israel. However, the Taliban, which has been
strongly critical of the US role in the move for UN sanctions, has promptly denied any
responsibility for the attacks.
Even while criticising the US, the Taliban has been engaged in a
dialogue with US officials on the bin Laden issue and it does not stand to reason that it
should mount these attacks, unless some rogue elements in it, beyond the control of Mulla
Mohammad Omer, its Amir, have carried out the attacks.
If one accepts the Taliban's denial at its face value, the next
in the suspects' list are the principal members of the International Islamic Front--the Al
Qaeda, the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HUM), the Lashkar-e-Toiba, the Al Badr and the
Sipah-e-Sahaba, Pakistan.
The Afghanistan-based Al Qaeda is led by bin Laden himself and
consists of about 200 Arab volunteers of pre-1992 Afghan jihad vintage--most of them
Saudis, Yemenis, Palestinians and Egyptians. The US suspects that it was responsible for
the bomb explosions outside the US Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in August last year.
The Al Qaeda's past terrorist attacks were directed at the US,
Saudi Arabia and Egypt. It had also been threatening the UK and Israel, but had never
threatened the UN. Indicators of its possible involvement are its anti-US motivation and
the day of occurrence ( it generally carries out its attacks on a Friday).
Indicators casting doubts about its involvement are the non-use
of explosives, which are its preferred weapon of attack, and the use of rockets of a not
so sophisticated type when it has more sophisticated weapons at its disposal. Moreover, at
a time, when bin Laden's continued evasion of the arms of justice depends on Gen.
Musharraf, it would have been unwise for him to antagonise the General by creating
difficulties for him in his relations with the US.
The remaining organisations are all Pakistan-based, but they have
their training camps in Afghan territory and have been providing volunteers to the Taliban
since 1996 for its fight against its Afghan opponents.
The Sipah-e-Sahaba is a virulently anti-Shia Sunni organisation,
which had played an active role in helping the Taliban in the massacre of the Shias
(Hazaras) of the Bamiyan province of Afghanistan. Before his overthrow by the Mohajir
General, Mr.Nawaz Sharif had strongly suspected the Sipah-e-Sahaba of involvement in the
recent recrudescence of anti-Shia violence in Pakistani Punjab and Sindh and had sent his
DG, ISI, Lt.Gen. Ziauddin, now under arrest, to Kandahar to seek the co-operation of the
Taliban Amir for controlling it.
All these Pakistan-based organisations are virulently
anti-American in their rhetoric, but only the HUM has been anti-US in its actions too,
whereas, the other organisations had so far carefully avoided any attacks on US nationals
or interests.
The HUM, under the name of Al Faran, had kidnapped some Western
tourists, including an American, in Kashmir in 1995 and was subsequently suspected in the
murder of some US nationals in Karachi. It was included by the US State Department in its
list of international terrorist organisations in October, 1997, and the restrictions
consequently imposed on it under US laws were renewed last month. It had signed bin
Laden's fatwa of May, 1998, calling for a jihad against the US and Israel.
Moreover, the HUM is believed to be close to Maulana Fazlur
Rahman, leader of the Jamiat-ul-Ulema Pakistan (JUI), who is considered to be the
godfather of the Taliban and one of the main protectors of bin Laden. Since August, he has
been issuing a number of warnings of possible attacks on US interests and nationals in
Pakistan should the US cause any harm to bin Laden.
Thus, as of now, the HUM figures at the top of the suspects'
list. If the role of the HUM is ultimately confirmed, the rocket attacks should be a
matter of serious concern not only to the US, but also to Gen. Musharraf. Of all the
Islamic extremist organisations of Pakistan, the HUM has made the maximum penetration into
the officer corps of the Pakistan army in the post-Zia-ul-Haq period.
Under Zia, the main penetration was by the Jamaat-e-Islami whose
Amir, Qazi Husain Ahmed, was very close to Zia. A number of other organisations had
penetrated the army after Zia and, of these, the HUM has had the maximum success.
This became evident in September,1995 when a group of army
officers headed by Maj.Gen. Zaheer-ul-Islam Abbasi was arrested by Gen. Abdul Waheed
Kakkar, the then Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), and sentenced to imprisonment by a
court-martial on a charge of plotting to kill Mrs.Benazir Bhutto, the then Prime Minister,
and senior Army officers and seizing power.
All the convicted army officers were found to be close to the
HUM. Thus, if the HUM had any role in the rocket attacks, it could be a warning not only
to the US not to do any harm to bin Laden and the Taliban, but also to Gen. Musharraf by
the HUM and the army officers associated with it not to co-operate with the US in its
anti-Taliban and anti-bin Laden activities. It should be interesting to watch how
vigorously the General has the investigation carried out and brings to book those
responsible.
Amongst other anti-Musharraf groups in Pakistan are,firstly, the
Shias, who hold him responsible for the massacre of the Shias of Gilgit in August,1988, by
a group of Pakthun tribals led by bin Laden, and for the recent massacre of the Shias of
Bamiyan by the Taliban and the Sipah-e-Sahaba, and,secondly, the Sindhi nationalists, who
are unhappy over a Mohajir General ruling them and the prominent role given to Mohajir
public servants by Gen. Musharraf in the revamped Sindh administration.
However, the involvement of the Shias and the Sindhi nationalists
in the rocket attacks is unlikely. Neither of them like bin Laden . And, they have no
grounds for anti-US resentment.
B.RAMAN
(14-11-99)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet
Secretariat, Govt. of India,and, presently, Director, Institute for Topical Studies,
Chennai.
E-Mail:corde@vsnl.com )
