( A number of users have been urging us to write on some
aspects of the internal political dynamics in India having a contemporary relevance.
Though this is a part of our objective, we were reluctant to start, as we were afraid that
we may lose our objectivity in analysis and then there was the question of quality.
Shri. Upadhyaya who has written this paper is an expert on internal developments in
India. He is a retired bureaucrat and does not belong to any party. The
assessment expressed here is his own- Director)
The BJP led coalition Government headed by Shri Vajpayee in
its thirteen months of governance (March 19’ 1998 to April 17’ 1999) could claim
credit for providing ‘Riot free and scam free government”, “terrorism free
border states”, “nuclear and missiles initiative”, ”historic bus
journey to Lahore" to improve Indo- Pak relation, resolving Cauvery river waters
dispute between Tamil Nadu and Karnataka states. But the real issue for the
countrymen, is to judge, how far this Government met their
expectations.
Two Phases of Vajpayee government:
The success and failure of Vajpayee Government can be broadly
examined in two phases-
1. The period from the day he ascended to the highest
position of the biggest democratic polity in the world to the end of November,
1998.
2. From November 1998 to mid April 1999. In the
beginning of this period the popularity graph of the BJP hit the bottom and
the party lost its governments in two states namely Delhi and Rajasthan. On
April 17, 1999 his government was defeated in Lok Sabha by the narrowest
possible margin.
The First Phase:
The first phase of Vajpayee Government was a tumultuous one and
in his effort to find a consensus within his party and the parent group the RSS, the
coalition partners and even the opposition, Vajpayee's own political personality and his
ability for political manoeuvring were severely tested.
The eventful climb to the post of the Prime Minister in a
pluralistic society of Indian polity by the son of a school teacher at the age of 73 was
in itself a big achievement since Vajpayee could neither reach this post by chance
like some of his predecessors nor by family legacy as inherited by some. In fact he
had to struggle at every step right from his school days in the small town of Gwalior in
1940 when he started attending “Shakha”(Assembly) of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh
(RSS), an organisation founded by forces believing in extreme nationalism/patriotism
but presently branded as communal forces by their political opponents.
Vajpayee was seen by the people as the benign face of the BJP and
thus when he was invited by the President of India to form the government, people of the
country accepted him as their true representative and what is more they expected miracles
from him. In view of the thin majority, disparate coalition partners, as a
matter of political expediency , Vajpayee wanted to govern the country on the basis
of consensus. In this, he failed. He failed not because of his political
conviction alone but also because of his inability or reluctance to resort to the
technique of "political maneuvering." His obsession to governance by
consensus of a broad spectrum of "pressure groups" became a major
hurdle in meeting the expectations of the people.
It was an irony that the first hurdle which Vajpayee had to
confront came from the RSS, the organisation which had all along been his
mentor. The problem started in the beginning itself in the matter of formation of
the cabinet. K.P.Sudersan, Joint Secretary, RSS prevailed upon Vajpayee and did not
allow him to select the cabinet colleagues of his (Vajpayee's) choice. This
interference in the prerogative of the Prime Minister was a major set back for
Vajpayee as Prime minister, but succumbing to the dictates of the RSS against
his will was a blunder as more pressures followed. Thus at the beginning of
his top political assignment in the country, he was projected as a weak Prime
Minister by the media. People who voted him to power in the background of
electioneering slogan- “Able Prime Minister and stable Government” felt let
down. Taking advantage of the situation, some of the leaders of coalition partners
started dragging Vajpayee into various controversies which provided an
opportunity to the opposition to train their guns on him.
In the background of a hostile media as well as
opposition parties and with the on going unreasonable demands from coalition
partners particularly AIADMK and Trinamul Congress, Vajpayee took one major decision of
letting the Indian Scientists carry out nuclear tests at Pokhran on May 11 and 13,
1998. The weapon powers and UN Security Council strongly deplored the nuclear
tests and asked India to join the non proliferation regime unconditionally. On
May 15, 1998, Vajpayee however, while declaring India as a nuclear weapon state asserted
that these weapons were not for any aggression. On July 10,1998 he announced in the
floor of parliament that India will not sign the CTBT unconditionally nor succumb to any
pressure to stall its nuclear weaponisation and missile programme. Despite economic
sanctions and general condemnation by the western powers and China, the people at large
welcomed Vajpayee's decision as bold and necessary for the security of
India.
Another achievement for Vajpayee government on the domestic front
was resolving Cauvery river water dispute. Vajpayee had a problem here as the major
players in this dispute were his coalition partners. The Supreme Court
directive came in handy and Vajpayee took the initiative and an accord on sharing Cauvery
river waters between Tamil Nadu and Karnataka states was signed in August 1998. Since this
accord was related to only two states and confined to the interest of only a section of
population, it could hardly create any wide range political impact on the country.
The period August –September 1998 was a testing time for the BJP
governments at the centre as well as in the states of Rajasthan and Delhi due to soaring
price of essential commodities in general and vegetables- specially onion and tomato in
particular. No one is clear as to how the price of tomato could have
gone up to Rs.50 per Kg and onion to Rs.60 to 70 per Kg. There were mutual
recriminations, with the government blaming the opposition and the latter accusing the
government of inefficiency of having allowed exports and the trading the community who
generally belong to the BJP of making a "fast buck".
But the people who depended on the consumer commodities for their
day to day living were angry and in the month of November 1998, the BJP had to
suffer a humiliating defeat in Delhi and Rajasthan assembly elections.
The Second Phase:
The second phase of government saw a more assertive
Vajpayee. The Prime minister appeared to have realised that consensus will not do
and his good intentions were perceived as weakness. The stand of the media was not
helpful either and the opposition parties continued to maintain that the government is
being run by the Sangh Parivar and that the secular tradition of the country is in
danger. ( The most abused word in Indian politics today is the term
"secular".) The leaders of the various constituents of Sangh family had
also tried to brow beat him on a number of issues. On December 5, 1998,
Vajpayee used his prerogative as prime minister and inducted three ministers of his choice
namely Jaswant Singh, Pramod Mahajan and Jagmohan into his cabinet.
Similarly his government took a bold decision to introduce a Bill in the winter
session of Parliament for opening up the insurance sector to foreign companies with 40%
equity, despite opposition from RSS and its constituents. There was the
expected criticism from the left parties also. Kushabhau Thakre, the national
president of the BJP, Dattopant Thengdi of Bhartiya Majdoor Sangh and others openly
criticised the move. The RSS leadership convened a special meeting of Akhil Bhartiya
Karyakari Mandal (Nagpur-December13-15, 1998) the highest decision making body of
the organisation which was also attended by BJP president Kushabhau Thakre,
criticised the Vajpayee government for its decision to open up insurance sector to
foreign companies, foreign direct investment in cigarette industry and of making the
sale of iodized salt compulsory. Vajpayee remained firm and his government introduced
the Insurance Bill in the Lok Sabha on December 15, 1998. In this backdrop,
when the National Executive Committee of the BJP held its meeting (Bangalore- January
2-3`99), the media expected that Vajpayee would be pulled up by the party heads. To the
credit of Vajpayee, his stand was endorsed by the party.
Before Vajpayee could consolidate his position, one of the
coalition partners, the AIADMK which never gave him one moment of peace through out,
joined hands with anti BJP forces to pull the government down. It was defeated in
the Lok Sabha by a margin of one vote. Vajpayee gracefully put in the resignation
of his cabinet. It is another story that the main opposition, the Congress I
and its allies promised on the floor of the house to form an alternative government, but
were soon to be exposed due to inherent contradictions amongst these parties.
Conclusion:
The real judgment on the success or failure could be seen only at
the time of the next Lok Sabha elections due to be held in end September 1998. But
certain tentative trends are seen. These are:
1. Vajpayee in the thirteen months of leading the country
has emerged as a leader in his own right and acceptable to broad sections of people.
Perceived by many in the south till a few years ago as a "north Indian party",
the BJP has successfully managed to win the confidence of regional parties like DMK and
the Telugu Desam.
2. Though committed to RSS ideals which are in his blood,
Vajpayee has lifted himself above the "sangh ideals" and has become a
realist.
3. Despite the much exaggerated anti Christian violence and
frequent noises made by communal forces, Vajpayee has steered himself away from such
forces and no one, not even the opposition could call him "communal".
4. In the field of foreign policy, lack of coordination as
seen from the statements of Defence minister in the beginning on China, letter to Clinton
soon after Pokhran II tests, lack of experience in handling crisis situation like that of
Kargil operations, were all to be seen as one of inexperience and not one of insincerity
of Vajpayee. His initiative in making a fresh approach in the Lahore declaration
(now much maligned, thanks to the Intruders and prior knowledge of planned intrusion of
Nawaz Sharif) and genuine belief in improving relations with Pakistan cannot be
questioned. The eight rounds of talks between Talbott and Jaswant Singh have placed both
USA and India in a better position to understand each other.
5. Vajpayee's biggest contribution could be, that in
the short thirteen months of government, he has moved India towards a bi- polar
polity. There will always be a third force, but they can never compete anymore with
the all India stature now obtained by the BJP or the Congress I.
R.Upadhyay
6-6-99
Shri. Upadhyaya is a Regional Adviser to South Asia Analysis
Group.
