The results of 199 constituencies out of 205 of the General
Elections of in Nepal have come in. The Nepali Congress (NC) has obtained a
comfortable majority with 109 seats and the United Marxist League (UML) has secured
67 seats. The Rashtriya Praja Party has won 11 seats and other minor parties make up
the balance 12 seats announced so far. The elections were generally peaceful.
The call for boycott of the elections from the NCP (Maoist) had a poor response except in
remote parts of Rukum and Dolpa districts.
In the first General elections in 1991 conducted after the
introduction of Constitutional monarchy, the Nepali Congress had obtained a clear
majority, but could not produce a stable government for long due to infighting amongst the
top three leaders, G.P.Koirala- the then Prime minister, Ganesh Man Singh, the Supreme
leader of Nepali Congress and K.P.Bhattarai, the Party President. It is hope of many well
wishers of Nepal that the present government will last its full term.
The second General election produced a fractured Parliament with
no clear majority for anyone. Numerous permutations and combinations were tried, six
in all, but none resulted in a stable government. For a while, it was thought that
the United Marxist government led by the late veteran communist Man Mohan Adhikari would
have a long tenure, but even that failed due to infighting amongst the UML with the party
splitting almost vertically with Bam Dev Gautam leading the break away faction.
Significantly, Bam Dev Gautam's party did not win a single seat this time.
In the present election, contrary to the general belief that
there will once again be a "hung" parliament, the people of Nepal have given a
clear mandate to the Nepali Congress for stability and progress.
It had often been felt by those who supported the democratic
movement in Nepal in 1990 both from inside and outside, that the change to democratic
polity had not resulted in "good governance" and some cynics said the people
appeared to be better off in the old Panchayat regime when parliament members
were selected and not elected! Until 1990, Nepal had not either experienced
democracy as is generally known or seen the working of democratic
institutions. People who had high expectations from their political leaders in
the changed regime were justifiably disappointed. Many of those leaders who had
suffered immensely in the Panchayat regime and had sacrificed their entire youth for the
cause of the democratic movement were found to have lost their ideals. They began to
enrich themselves at break neck speed. With the exception of one or two, it was not the
case with the first generation of the leaders in independent India. People who were
traveling by cycles were suddenly seen moving about in imported luxury cars. Those
who used to buy bread from "Krishna Pavrotti"( a bread outlet for the common man
in Kathmandu) were seen buying bread from Annapurna, the five star hotel on the Durbar
road near the Palace!
The scramble for power, position and wealth by those who had
worked for democracy till then saddened many. From the Indian side, the expectation
that the Indo Nepal relations will not only improve but that the economic relations will
be placed on a stronger footing, was belied. Article 126 of the Constitution
introduced by the interim government led by K.P.Bhattarai virtually foreclosed any
meaningful cooperation in the field of water resources also. Water was one asset
which Nepal had in plenty and a very useful straight forward commercial relationship could
have built up in the last eight years. But despite regular talks and agreements,
nothing had changed on the ground.
Winners and Losers:
The Nepali Congress leadership except for Shailaja Acharya has
generally got through. Like Robert Bruce, Bhattarai tried again and again and
finally succeeded in winning in Parsa, which he contested once before. For
this, he should thank the Terains though he had no special love for them. One
welcome winner is P.L.Singh, the adopted son of late Ganesh Man Singh. Singh is
generally liked by all factions in the Nepali Congress and he is considered to be a
"doer." He is friendly, accessible and popular. He should do
well.
The UML led by Madhav Nepal will be the main opposition.
When the communists came to power earlier after the second general elections, there were
misgivings in India that they may prove to be trouble some to India, but were proved
wrong. The General Secretary of UML, Madhav Nepal who visited India as Deputy Prime
minister earned the respect and admiration of many in India by conducting himself with
dignity and proving to be an astute politician attuned to the needs of Nepal. He was
one person who took it upon himself to get the agreement on Mahakali river going as he
realised, more than the Nepali Congress leaders that the economic salvation of Nepal lies
in meaningful economic cooperation with India.
The RPP ( Rashtriya Prajathanthra party, also known as National
Democratic Party) has made a good showing winning 11 seats. Prominent losers were
its Secretary- Rabindra Sharma and Dr. P.C.Lohani. The last one was an eminent
intellectual and though one may not agree with his views, he had a point of view and was
impressive in the debates in the Rashtriya Panchayat.
The Nepal Sadbhavana party improved its position, by winning five
seats but its popular leader of Terai, Gajendra Narain Singh lost in Saptari by a narrow
margin of 17 votes. Gajendra Narain Singh had untiringly worked for Terain
causes and he symbolised the aspirations of the Terai people as a whole. His
rejection by the people is a surprise. There were complaints that he was becoming
too autocratic and had never allowed other leaders to "grow." Perhaps
G.N.Singh will have some time now to take up the organisational work of the party.
The new Government:
Unless there is some last minute change, Bhattarai is expected to
be selected as the leader of the parliamentary party of Nepali Congress. He is
a product of Benares Hindu University and a scholar in his own right. Though jovial
and affable he was never considered to be a serious person and is prone to flippant
statements. He is also easily swayed by the coterie round him. Most important
is his health factor. Some people feel that he is too senile to lead the
party. He needs the full support of Girija Prasad Koirala, who surprisingly even
before the elections gave away the leadership of the parliamentary party to
Bhattarai. It is necessary for both the leaders to sink their differences, forget
the bitterness of the past and work together for the full term.
Tasks before the Government:
The government has many problems to attend to. Some of the
more important ones are
* Cabinet formation: Bhattarai has to accommodate
all factions in the composition of the Cabinet. Firstly, there is the division
between those who remained outside the Panchayat regime and those who crossed over after
the introduction of the Constitutional monarchy. Secondly, in the past, Kathmandu
valley took the lion's share in the cabinet. A fair representation to include the
northern and the Terai regions will have to be worked out. Thirdly the G.P.Koirala's
faction will have to be given its due share if there is to be some stability.
* Indo-Nepal Relations: There has been a demand for
revision of the 1950 Indo-Nepal treaty. This demand is from all sections of the
people of Nepal. It is time that India reviews its position with regard to such
treaties not only with Nepal but with Bhutan also. These treaties were well suited
for the colonial era but are no longer relevant in the present day globalised economic
order where each country has voluntarily given up a part of its sovereignty for the
economic good of the whole. No alliance on reasons of security can be forced on any
sovereign country.
Some policy makers in India complain that Nepal is not clear as to what it wants.
This is not true. What Nepal wants is the removal of certain humiliating clauses
affecting its sovereignty like import of arms, compulsory consultations with India on
certain matters and at the same time retaining the "people friendly" provisions
like free flow of people and goods between the two countries. This can be worked
out.
In the near term, there is no possibility in the improvement of
bilateral schemes relating to water resources. Until Nepal realises that it has a
level playing field in the exploitation of its water resources no progress is
possible.
* The Maoist menace: The continuing law and order
problem created by the Maoists in some of the remote northern districts needs to be
attended to. The Indian newspaper Hindu in one of its editorials has described the
problem as "exaggerated." The problem cannot be treated lightly as is
prone to be when it occurs in remote regions and the capital, Kathmandu is not
affected. It is more a social problem and has to be tackled as such. It has
already taken more than 800 lives, a figure, big enough for a small country like
Nepal.
* Economic Development: Bhattarai in one of
his first meetings with the Press, mentioned poverty alleviation as his priority.
Nepal which had a surplus of food has become a net importer. Agricultural production
in the Terai region has come down dramatically. Dependence on foreign aid for
balancing the budget is continuing. The tourist industry which is the main foreign
exchange earner continues to be sluggish. Literacy rate is below 40 percent and
communications with remote regions are practically absent. Problems are galore.
Nepal needs the good will of India for its economic prosperity.
* Bhutanese refugees in the east: The Bhutanese
refugees now in Nepal exceed 100,000. Bhutan has taken a stand in the past that in
the absence of a stable government in Nepal no progress can be made in the identification
and repatriation of the refugees. Dependence on UNHCR for sustaining the refugees
cannot be continued indefinitely. There is need for a new initiative.
Future:
Is Nepal moving towards a viable political order? Much
would depend upon the performance of the government being formed by the Nepali
Congress. The King as the constitutional head of the country has conducted himself
in an exemplary manner. Nepal though small in size, is as much a multi-racial,
multi-lingual and multi-cultural country like India. The King is still the unifying
factor, though there is no going back to the old Panchayat days.
Dr.S.Chandrasekharan.
27.5.99
