The People's War in Nepal: Some
disturbing trends.
It is now three years since the people's war movement started in
Nepal. What began as a sporadic and unconnected killing of government officials and
Nepali Congress workers in various parts of the country is now growing and if left
unchecked has the potential to become a regular insurgency. The hilly terrain,
backwardness of the people, lack of communications, ethnic rivalries and above all, the
absence of a stable government at Kathmandu are ideal ingredients for the movement to
expand and attract recruits. One well-known authority on Nepali politics, Prof.
Paramanand of Delhi University, described the movement as an "ill organised terrorist
organisation not bothered about ideology and carrying out killings for no concrete
purpose." We agree that it is just a terrorist movement based on a thin veneer
of ideology. It has no coordinated long term strategy. The weapons used
are primitive and the attacks lack sophistication. It is not led by any charismatic
leader. There are no external players yet. But recent incidents show
some disturbing trends which need to be examined.
Recent Incidents:
To celebrate the anniversary, the people's war movement of the
Nepal Communist Party (Maoist) on February 13, 1999 indulged in bomb throwing and
distribution of pamphlets in several parts of the country. One major incident, first
in the district of Taplejung and close to the Tibetan border was the throwing of a bomb at
the District Police Office. In Khotang, bombs were thrown at the District Court, the
District Development Office and the Land Tax office. In Rolpa which has had a
history of Maoist attacks before, 14 police posts were attacked simultaneously.
Sporadic incidents were also reported at Dhading, Gorkha, Kanchanpur, Jumla, Bara, Siraha
and Birgunj. This was the first time that the terrorists made a spectacular
show of strength in terms of space, number and intensity.
The most serious incident that occurred recently on March 3
was in Dang, a place close to the UP border, where forty armed cadres attacked a police
post at Chiraghat, Dang and decamped with six rifles, one pistol and other
weapons. Several Policemen were killed. This attack was similar to the
one in October last year when the police post at Janakpur was attacked and one
constable was killed and two others seriously injured. The injured had to be
airlifted to Kathmandu for immediate treatment.
Other recent incidents include:
* Bombs were exploded at the residence of the Home Secretary,
Padma Prasad Pokhrel, at Sinamangal in Kathmandu on March 2.
* Two members of People's war movement were killed on Feb.
18 when they clashed with Police in the Pattharkot of Sarlahi District.
* Seven persons were killed by indiscriminate firing by the
terrorists at Harjang, Rolpa district on March 11.
* Seven terrorists were killed in two separate incidents in
police encounters at Chingwang and Simli in Rukum district on the same day, March 11.
* Four Maoists were killed at Kyaneshwor, Sindhuli district on
the same day (March 11)
* 5 Kgs of RDX with detonators and remote control equipment were
recovered from a person at Naxal in Kathmandu.
The Maoist paper Jana Awhan termed the
movement, a "war of liberation." It called for the unity of the people
against the "reactionary, opportunist, revisionist and neo-revisionist "
forces. In another twist besides fighting against feudalism, imperialism and
expansionism, it also called for the liberation of "different classes, ethnic,
indigenous and other communities." Thus it is not only sought to be a classic
class war, but also involves the liberation of various ethnic communities. In a
country where the ethnic communities are riven by rivalry and mutual animosity, the call
for liberation of ethnic communities will find sympathetic response.
.
Prachand, the General Secretary of the NCP (Maoist) and chief of the
so-called military commission in a statement through Janadesh, justified the
killings of Policemen at Dang and warned of actions against higher officials if the
"reign of terror is not stopped by the reactionary government."
Disturbing trends:
The individual incidents except for the one at Dang are not
serious, but taken together, they show some disturbing trends.
* For the first time, the people's war movement made a
coordinated attack at different places spread all over Nepal.
* Earlier, the incidents were mostly in remote and least
populated areas of Nepal like Rukum, Dolpa, Salyan etc. Now it has spread spatially
in all directions affecting districts bordering India (Janakpur of Dhanusha district,
Birgunj of Parsa district, Sarlahi district and Dang) and Taplejung bordering Tibet.
* The attacks have been selective on Police posts and on
government officials.
* The Capital is not safe any longer as seen from the March 2
incident. It would mean that the group has managed to get a foothold within
the capital with active support from some fringe elements of ML and UML.
* Discovery of RDX, detonators and remote controlled devices at
Kathmandu adds a new dimension to the movement. It is not clear yet
whether the RDX was meant for the people's movement. It could be one of those
regularly recovered from terrorists on transit to India from Pakistan.
* The inability of the Police to deal effectively with the
terrorists is another matter of concern. The politicians do not seem to be unduly
perturbed by the killings. If there is one politician who takes seriously the
incidents it is the Prime minister G.P. Koirala himself and he alone cannot solve the
problem, unless all the parties those in government and in opposition work together and
work out a strategy.
* Countering terrorism is always a dirty job and the Police have
already come in for criticism for human rights violations.
* Though there is no hard evidence, some link appears to have
been established with other ethnic groups like Nepal Utpidit Dalit Jatiya Mukti
Samaj ( Nepal Depressed and Exploited Class Liberation Society), who in their
annual convention in Kathmandu called for a radical change, from the liberation of ethnic
communities to a cultural revolution, unity of depressed classes and linked them to the
anti feudal and anti imperialist campaign.
* Some tentative links appear to have been established by the
group with the extremist groups of West Bengal. Links with the extremists in north
Bihar cannot be ruled out.
The Police in Nepal have managed the situation well so
far. In the process they have taken some casualties. The army has not been
called out. If the movement intensifies, sooner or later, the army has to get
involved. A state of lawlessness already prevails in the northern regions of
Bihar. The ISI of Pakistan is also very active in the border regions.
Intensification of the people's movement in the Terai regions of Nepal will add to
lawlessness on both sides of the border.
So far the movement has had only a "nuisance" value in
Nepal. But as said earlier, it needs to be checked lest it grows into an insurgency
movement affecting the security of both Nepal and India.
.
Dr.S.Chandrasekharan.
20.3.99
